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Newsletter #47 A $2M bet on BTC 

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March 20, 2023
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4 min read

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The Bit Signal 

In the last 10 days, a couple of major banks have failed. It all started with a classic bank run on one of the biggest money lenders in the tech industry—the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The sudden collapse of one of the leading financial institutions has instilled panic in the market. People are frantically pulling their life savings from the once-trusted banks. Market analysts are expecting a financial crisis greater than 2008. It remains to be seen how big the damage will be to the global economy. SVB's downfall does raise a really important question: If people can't trust traditional financial institutions to keep their stored wealth safe, what other options do they have? Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan believes that it's bitcoin.

For those who don't know, Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, built it to function as an alternative to the traditional financial system. Although the original cryptocurrency is often looked upon as a get-rich-quick scheme, it's at times like this that its true utility is revealed. Many are not aware that we could experience a really serious meltdown in the coming months, and Balaji has taken it upon himself to sound the alarm as loudly as he can.

Srinivasan recently made a millionaire wager on Bitcoin's price over the next 90 days. He predicts that the cryptocurrency will reach $1 million by June 17.

On March 17, a Twitter user named James Medlock put forward a bet of $1 million that hyperinflation would not occur in the United States. Without hesitation, Srinivasan accepted the challenge, and the terms of the wager are quite simple: If Bitcoin fails to reach a value of $1 million by June 17, Medlock will earn $1 million worth of the stablecoin USDC, which is pegged to the US dollar, as well as 1 BTC. However, if Bitcoin is worth at least $1 million by that date, Srinivasan will keep both 1 BTC and the $1 million in USDC.

Srinivasan is convinced that the US dollar will deflate soon, leading to a hyperinflation scenario that would push the BTC price up to $1 million. This is not an uncommon concern as many people fear a global banking crisis. In fact, Bitcoin's market capitalization has already risen by over $194 billion since the beginning of the year, outperforming Wall Street and bank stocks. BTC's price has also moved away from United States stocks, having surged by approximately 65% in contrast to the S&P 500's 2.5% gains and the Nasdaq's 15% decline over the last year. It appears that people are increasingly turning to cryptocurrencies as a safe haven, similar to what we saw in Turkey when the national currency, the lira, failed and digital assets like BTC and ETH became more attractive options.

It's a bold move, but Srinivasan is confident in his prediction. He's even willing to put down another $1 million in USDC for another wager on the same topic. We think that this is a brilliant marketing move by Balaji to bring more eyeballs onto the failures of the traditional banking system and convince them to get on the Bitcoin Standard. Although, if the dollar does go down as hard as Balaji is claiming, we're all in for a hell of a ride.

So, what do you y’all think? Are you bullish or bearish on Bitcoin's future? Let us know in the comments!

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